Consumer Spending
Actual retail and food service sales. Sentiment surveys (Consumer Confidence, Michigan) are shown for context only — they measure feelings, not spending.
Pure Actuals — No Survey Counterpart
These metrics have no directly comparable survey-based counterpart measuring the same variable in the same units. Shown individually with signal assessment only.
FRED · monthlyActual
Census Retail Sales
3.7%-0.2pp vs year agoPositive signal
Census Bureau surveys ~5,500 retail and food service firms on actual sales dollars.
Latest data: Feb 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
FRED · monthlyActual
Food Services & Drinking Places
5.2%+1.9pp vs year agoPositive signal
Actual receipts from restaurants, bars, and food service establishments. Pure discretionary spending.
Latest data: Feb 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
Context: What Surveys Say
Not directly comparable to the metrics above. These surveys measure sentiment or opinions, not the same variable as the actual data shown in previous sections.
FRED · monthlySurvey
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
56.6-12.5% YoYWarning sign
Phone survey of ~500 households, heavily influenced by gas prices and partisan politics. Often diverges wildly from actual spending behavior. Shown for context only — not directly comparable to spending data.
Latest data: Feb 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
Methodology
Reported (Left column) = official surveys, models, and lagged indices. Subject to revision and sampling error. Sources: BLS (CES/CPS surveys), Conference Board, University of Michigan, S&P CoreLogic.
Real (Right column) = actual counted transactions, filings, and real-time measurements. No estimation. Sources: ADP payroll data, Zillow listings, TSA checkpoint counts, AAR carloads, FRED transactional series.
Pairing rule: Only metrics measuring the same variable in the same units are paired side-by-side. Metrics without a true survey counterpart are shown in the “Pure Actuals” section without comparison banners.
YoY calculation: All year-over-year changes compare the latest available value to the value closest to 12 months prior, using identical methodology on both sides.
Last refreshed: 8 Apr 2026, 17:19 UTC — auto-refreshes daily at 06:00 UTC