Inflation

Price changes across the economy. Two validated pairs: CPI vs Truflation (annual inflation rate) and CPI Shelter/OER vs Zillow ZORI (shelter inflation YoY).

Reported vs Real

Reported (Survey / Model / Lagged)
Real (Actual Transactions / Filings / Real-Time)
Shelter Inflation YoY
Shared variable: Year-over-year shelter/rent inflation · Unit: percent (yoy_pct)
Aligned: Reported and actual data are directionally aligned
FRED · monthlySurvey
CPI Shelter (OER)
Source →
3.0%-1.2pp vs year agoPositive signal

CPI Shelter uses Owner's Equivalent Rent — a survey asking homeowners 'what would you rent your house for?' Lags actual rents by 12-18 months.

Latest data: Feb 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
ZILLOW · monthlyActual
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI)
Source →
1.9%-1.1pp vs year agoPositive signal

Zillow ZORI tracks actual asking rents across millions of active rental listings nationwide. What landlords are actually charging right now.

Latest data: Feb 28, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
How they differ: Both measure year-over-year change in shelter costs. OER is a hypothetical survey; ZORI is real listing prices.

Pure Actuals — No Survey Counterpart

These metrics have no directly comparable survey-based counterpart measuring the same variable in the same units. Shown individually with signal assessment only.

FRED · monthlySurvey
CPI (All Items, YoY)
Source →
2.4%-0.4pp vs year agoPositive signal

BLS headline CPI — the most-watched inflation gauge. Shelter (35% weight) uses Owner's Equivalent Rent which lags real rents by 12-18 months.

Latest data: Feb 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
FRED · monthlyActual
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealer Sales
Source →
0.30M-5.9pp vs year agoPositive signal

Census Bureau monthly data on actual retail sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Latest data: Jan 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
FRED · monthlySurvey
CPI Used Cars & Trucks
Source →
-3.2%-3.9pp vs year agoPositive signal

CPI used car component — lags Manheim wholesale prices by 1-2 months.

Latest data: Feb 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
FRED · monthlySurvey
CPI Rent of Primary Residence
Source →
2.7%-1.4pp vs year agoPositive signal

BLS measurement of actual rents paid by tenants — not the hypothetical Owner's Equivalent Rent.

Latest data: Feb 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
Methodology
Reported (Left column) = official surveys, models, and lagged indices. Subject to revision and sampling error. Sources: BLS (CES/CPS surveys), Conference Board, University of Michigan, S&P CoreLogic.
Real (Right column) = actual counted transactions, filings, and real-time measurements. No estimation. Sources: ADP payroll data, Zillow listings, TSA checkpoint counts, AAR carloads, FRED transactional series.
Pairing rule: Only metrics measuring the same variable in the same units are paired side-by-side. Metrics without a true survey counterpart are shown in the “Pure Actuals” section without comparison banners.
YoY calculation: All year-over-year changes compare the latest available value to the value closest to 12 months prior, using identical methodology on both sides.
Last refreshed: 8 Apr 2026, 17:19 UTC — auto-refreshes daily at 06:00 UTC