Labour Market
Employment change, unemployment claims, and labour market health. One validated pair: NFP vs ADP (monthly employment change in thousands).
Reported vs Real
BLS survey of ~145K businesses. First release routinely revised by +/-75K. Uses birth-death model.
ADP processes actual payroll transactions from 26M+ workers. No survey, no model — real paychecks.
Pure Actuals — No Survey Counterpart
These metrics have no directly comparable survey-based counterpart measuring the same variable in the same units. Shown individually with signal assessment only.
Actual unemployment insurance filings processed by state agencies weekly. Real people filing real claims — no survey methodology.
Ongoing unemployment insurance claims — people still receiving benefits. Shows duration of unemployment.
Continued claims (CCSA) divided by the civilian labor force. Normalizes unemployment claims against workforce size — a 1.2% rate means 1.2% of the total labor force is receiving unemployment benefits.
Shown as context — the unemployment rate is a survey that measures a fundamentally different variable than weekly claims filings, so direct comparison would be misleading.