Signal Scoreboard

Every variable we track, split by whether its current reading is a positive or warning signal for the economy. This is the breakdown behind the headline on the dashboard.

The real world is nuanced but — the actual data looks better than the survey data. 29 of the 40 variables show a positive signal in the real-world data.

Positive Signals(29)

Variables currently reading as healthy or improving.

FRED·weekly·real

Commercial Bank Loans (H.8)

Credit & Lending

7.4%

+3.5pp vs year ago

growing 7.4% YoY (was 3.9%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

Consumer Credit Outstanding

Credit & Lending

2.3%

+1.9pp vs year ago

growing 2.3% YoY (was 0.4%, accelerating)

FRED·quarterly·real

Credit Card Delinquency Rate

Credit & Lending

2.9%

-0.1pp YoY

at 2.9% (down 0.1pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·reported

SLOOS Lending Standards

Credit & Lending

8.1%

-10.4pp YoY

at 8.1% (down 10.4pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·reported

Federal Government Receipts

Government Debt & Fiscal

$5873B

+8.9% YoY

at $5873B (up +8.9% YoY)

FRED·monthly·real

Electric Power Production

High-Frequency Activity

2.8%

+0.1pp vs year ago

growing 2.8% YoY (was 2.7%, accelerating)

OPENTABLE·daily·real

OpenTable Seated Diners

High-Frequency Activity

14.4%

+8.9pp vs year ago

growing 14.4% YoY (was 5.5%, accelerating)

FRED·weekly·real

Rail Freight Carloads

High-Frequency Activity

995991.0

+1.7% YoY

at 995991.0 (up +1.7% YoY)

FRED·weekly·real

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Housing

6.5%

-0.4pp YoY

at 6.5% (down 0.4pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

FHFA House Price Index

Housing

3.4%

-1.4pp vs year ago

growing 3.4% YoY (was 4.8%, decelerating)

at 1465K (up +4.6% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Housing

0.7%

-2.7pp vs year ago

growing 0.7% YoY (was 3.4%, decelerating)

ZILLOW-ZHVI·monthly·real

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)

Housing

0.6%

-0.8pp vs year ago

growing 0.6% YoY (was 1.4%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

CPI Rent of Primary Residence

Inflation

2.8%

-1.2pp vs year ago

growing 2.8% YoY (was 4.0%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

growing 3.3% YoY (was 4.0%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

CPI Used Cars & Trucks

Inflation

-2.7%

-4.2pp vs year ago

contracting -2.7% YoY (was 1.5%, a deterioration from growth)

FRED·monthly·real

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealer Sales

Inflation

-3.90M

-15.9pp vs year ago

contracting -3.90M YoY (was 12.00M, a deterioration from growth)

ZILLOW-ZORI·monthly·real

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI)

Inflation

1.9%

-1.1pp vs year ago

growing 1.9% YoY (was 3.0%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

ADP Employment Change

Labour Market

122K

+146K vs year ago

adding 122K (was -24K a year ago)

FRED·weekly·real

Continued Claims as % of Workforce

Continued Unemployment Claims

Labour Market

1777K

-6.3% YoY

at 1777K (down 6.3% YoY)

FRED·weekly·real

Initial Unemployment Claims

Labour Market

225K

-7.8% YoY

at 225K (down 7.8% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

Non-Farm Payrolls (BLS)

Labour Market

172K

+159K vs year ago

adding 172K (was 13K a year ago)

FRED·monthly·reported

Unemployment Rate (BLS)

FRED·monthly·reported

BLS Manufacturing Employment

Manufacturing

+18K vs year ago

adding 7K (was -11K a year ago)

FRED·monthly·real

Industrial Production Index

Manufacturing

1.4%

+0.5pp vs year ago

growing 1.4% YoY (was 0.9%, accelerating)

growing 4.9% YoY (was 5.0%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

Food Services & Drinking Places

Consumer Spending

2.7%

-4.2pp vs year ago

growing 2.7% YoY (was 6.9%, decelerating)

FRED·daily·real

Indeed Software Developer Job Postings

AI & Tech Employment

70.9

+14.6% YoY

at 70.9 (up +14.6% YoY)

Warning Signs(11)

Variables currently reading as unhealthy or deteriorating.

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Debt as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

122.6%

+1.1pp YoY

at 122.6% (up +1.1pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Deficit as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

-5.8%

+0.4pp YoY

at -5.8% (up +0.4pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Government Expenditures

Government Debt & Fiscal

$7679B

+5.0% YoY

at $7679B (up +5.0% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Interest Payments

Government Debt & Fiscal

$1219B

+6.5% YoY

at $1219B (up +6.5% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Net Interest as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

3.2%

+0.1pp YoY

at 3.2% (up +0.1pp YoY)

at 1423K (down 1.5% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

growing 3.8% YoY (was 2.3%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

Capacity Utilization Rate

contracting -4.4% YoY (was -3.6%, easing)

FRED·monthly·reported

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Spending

49.8

-4.6% YoY

at 49.8 (down 4.6% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

BLS Tech Sector Employment

AI & Tech Employment

-2K

-1K vs year ago

losing 2K (was -1K a year ago)

How we score signals

Each variable is classified good or bad by the same rule used everywhere on the site. For rate series (already a % change, e.g. CPI YoY), we check both the level and the direction: an inflation-type metric is good if it’s already at or below 2% or if it’s decelerating; a growth-type metric is good if it’s positive or accelerating. For diff series (e.g. payrolls added/lost), positive = good when {upIsGood} is true. For level series, we use the YoY direction. Variables without enough history to compute a year-ago comparison are excluded from the count.

Methodology

Reported (Left column) = official surveys, models, and lagged indices. Subject to revision and sampling error. Sources: BLS (CES/CPS surveys), Conference Board, University of Michigan, S&P CoreLogic.

Real (Right column) = actual counted transactions, filings, and real-time measurements. No estimation. Sources: ADP payroll data, Zillow listings, TSA checkpoint counts, AAR carloads, FRED transactional series.

Pairing rule: Only metrics measuring the same variable in the same units are paired side-by-side. Metrics without a true survey counterpart are shown in the “Pure Actuals” section without comparison banners.

YoY calculation: All year-over-year changes compare the latest available value to the value closest to 12 months prior, using identical methodology on both sides.

Last refreshed: 6 Jun 2026, 08:31 UTC — auto-refreshes daily at 06:00 UTC